Abstract
According to most recent projections (Table 55.1), by 2030 Asia’s emerging economies² will become larger than those of the United States and the European Union.³ By then, the world economy should be twice as large as it is today and middle-income countries will dominate demand and production (Appendix Table 55.A). These trends imply extensive (and hopefully peaceful) rearrangements of economic and strategic influence, and could lead to unprecedented innovation and prosperity as well as severe stresses on the environment. In other words, they need to be taken seriously. But are these projections reasonable or even feasible?
Many observers don’t think