Abstract
Researchers from the Brandeis International Business School, in collaboration with King Abdullah Petroleum
Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) are building an agent-based simulation model that encompasses the
considerable scenario building efforts of Shell, et. al. on energy and climate models (Shell, BP, IEA, EIA, IPCC).
This research contributes to the literature on the complexity of economic systems, showing how heterogeneity, path
dependency, feedback loops, and learning by agents can dramatically alter the outcomes predicted by traditional
(equilibrium) economic models (e.g., how NOC or IOC agents react to shale production and drilling rig activity). It
also provides scenario-analysis tools to model the dynamics of energy markets and the transitions from oil and gas
production fields (regions) using historical data.