Abstract
This study analyzes changing trends in U.S. health spending and concludes that although the long-term growth trend has been a good predictor of future spending, periodic differences in the growth trend are important. Of particular concern is the rapid acceleration in health spending beginning in 1998. If left unchecked, the current growth rate will result in almost 24 percent of GDP spent on health by 2011. The authors question whether such unconstrained spending levels are either desirable or inevitable, and they offer a guide to how the United States might develop a long-term cost-containment strategy that is both effective and sustainable.