Abstract
Spending on psychotropic medications has grown rapidly in recent decades. Using national data on drug expenditures, patent expirations, future drug development and expert interviews, we project that spending will grow more slowly over the period 2012–2020. The average annual increase is projected to be just 3.0 % per year, continuing the steady deceleration in recent years. The main drivers of this expected deceleration include slower development of new drugs, upcoming patent expirations which will lower prices, and payers’ growing ability to manage utilization and promote generic use. The slowdown will relieve some cost pressures on payers, particularly Medicare and Medicaid.