Abstract
Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey youth cohort a model is developed to analyze transition probabilities from nonemployment to employment. The key factors examined include personal characteristics, unemployment income, local demand conditions, and duration dependence. There are significant differences between the labor market experiences of whites and nonwhites, and males and females. Local demand conditions and human capital investments are important determinants of the duration of spells of nonemployment. There appears to be strong evidence of negative duration dependence in re-employment probabilities for both young males and young females.