Abstract
This paper contributes to the ongoing literature regarding the nature of the relationship between trade and international conflict by examining empirically whether the direction of that relationship has changed over time. While much research has been conducted by both political scientists and economists on the issue of whether or not there exists any relationship between trade and conflict, and, if so, whether that relationship is positive or negative, this paper specifically aims to understand whether the direction of that relationship has changed. I develop several logit models based on 22 European dyads (pairs of countries) utilizing the Correlates of War Project and the V-Dem Database and analyze several measures of trade and their relationship with armed conflict. I find that the direction of the relationship between trade and conflict has changed over time.