John Ballantine Jr.

Climate scenarios and extreme weather surprises strongly suggest that faster energy transitions are necessary IF we are to stay below a 1.8 o Celsius rise by 2050 and bend our carbon curve. A review of efforts to decarbonize heavy industry with cleaner hydrogen involves significant capital investment, continued R & D, and a refiguration of our energy supply chains. Our current investment typology and funding structure – in spite of COP28 pledges-does not have the capacity to provide up to $13 trillion for hydrogen over the next five years, or more for our electrical grids. We need to configure a flexible – heterogenous-investment framework to accelerate our energy transitions. Much like the Marshall plan, a focused energy bank using clean hydrogen as an illustrative case study shows the investment funds required to build a more decarbonized world by 2035.

Researchers from the Brandeis International Business School, in collaboration with King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) are building an agent-based simulation model that encompasses the scenario building efforts of Shell, et. al. on energy and climate models (Shell, BP, IEA, EIA, IPCC). This research contributes to the literature on the complexity of economic systems, showing how heterogeneity, path dependency, feedback loops, and learning by agents can dramatically alter price expectations and outcomes – investment and production -- predicted by traditional (equilibrium) economic or VAR models (e.g., how NOC or IOC agents react to price changes/surprises, shale production, and climate change goals / rules). Analyzing and parsing the investment and production decisions of different producers gives us the tools to model the dynamics of energy markets. We look at agents’ endogenous investment behavior to gain a better understanding of investment cycles and to model the transition from higher cost fields (regions) to a more sustainable future.

Researchers from the Brandeis International Business School, in collaboration with King Abdullah Petroleum
Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) are building an agent-based simulation model that encompasses the
considerable scenario building efforts of Shell, et. al. on energy and climate models (Shell, BP, IEA, EIA, IPCC).
This research contributes to the literature on the complexity of economic systems, showing how heterogeneity, path
dependency, feedback loops, and learning by agents can dramatically alter the outcomes predicted by traditional
(equilibrium) economic models (e.g., how NOC or IOC agents react to shale production and drilling rig activity). It
also provides scenario-analysis tools to model the dynamics of energy markets and the transitions from oil and gas
production fields (regions) using historical data.