Nader Habibi

This study examines the impact of international economic sanctions, imposed on Iran due to its nuclear program, on the development of its middle class. Specifically, it investigates how Iran's middle class would have evolved absent sanctions post-2012. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) with nested optimization, we construct a counterfactual scenario for Iran based on a weighted average of comparable countries that mirror pre-2012 Iran but without significant sanctions. Our SCM results indicate that sanctions led to an average annual reduction of 17 percentage points in the size of Iran's middle class from 2012 to 2019. Our Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) analysis, however, provides a more conservative estimate of a 12 percentage points average annual loss, reinforcing the robustness of the findings. These estimates capture the total effect of sanctions, encompassing both their direct economic shocks, and Iran's policy responses. These results are validated through extensive sensitivity checks, including in-space and in-time placebo tests, leave-one-out analyses, and bias-corrected SCM. We also identify real GDP per capita, merchandise imports and exports, investment, industry value added, informal and vulnerable employment as key channels through which sanctions negatively impact the middle class. •Sanctions significantly contracted Iran's middle class.•The study uses counterfactual analysis to isolate the causal effect of sanctions.•It applies Synthetic Difference-in-Differences for robustness.•It traces the economic pathways of sanctions' impact on Iran's middle class.

After the second World War, the Middle East has experienced more conflict and war than any other region in the world. In this essay I ask whether the three dominant tribes that make up the Middle East -Arabs, Turks, and Iranians- have the capacity to reduce their tensions and
move toward regional cooperation. These tensions and conflicts have deep historical and cultural roots that need to be addressed. Furthermore, Arabs, Turks and Iranians can learn from the experience of other regions of the world such as Europe and South America, which have managed to overcome conflict and develop strong regional bonds. I argue that the first step in this direction is to transition from the current state of cold war and proxy wars to cold peace, which can be followed by a warm peace. As a practical first step I recommend the creation of regionalist advocacy groups in Iran, Turkey, and Arab countries.

This is an applied econometric analysis of labour market data for the United States. We study the impact of several factors on overflow of overeducated employees into various job categories. We use panel data regression analysis with fixed and random effects. We also use data visualisation to investigate the overeducation trends during 2002-2016 for various occupation categories. Our dataset consists of seven sets of annual data for 704 occupations. We investigate this phenomenon at two levels: 1) overflow of university graduates into occupations that do not require a university degree, and 2) overflow of Masters and PhD degree holders into occupations that require a bachelor's degree or less. We observe that the overeducation has increased in most occupations and it causes a crowding out effect; an adequately educated worker might be outcompeted by an overeducated worker. While the income premium of a university education has decreased over time, the income advantage of university education over a high school degree has persisted. Furthermore, our regression analysis has shown that the overeducation ratio has a positive correlation with the median earnings of an occupation and its opportunities for self-employment. The results hold for both college graduates and holders of graduate degrees.

In this study we investigate the educational attainment of the labour force in the United States. Our data analysis, based on Bureau of Labour Statistics data in more than 700 occupations, produced two important findings. First, we observed that the Overeducation Ratio (share of employees that are overeducated), which began to rise in the United States as early as 1970, continued its positive trend in many occupations during 2002-2016. Second, our regression analysis revealed a positive correlation between the overeducation ratio and the median earnings of an occupation. Since a larger overeducation ratio implies that a larger share of adequately educated individuals are crowded out, this result suggests that the displacement of adequately educated individuals is more severe in better paying occupations. Third, we analysed the overflow of graduate degree holders into occupations that require a bachelor's degree. We observe that graduate degree holders are crowding out the bachelor's degree holders from better paying bachelor's occupations. The bachelor's degree holders, in turn, are crowding out high school graduates from better paying high school jobs.

Purpose Most Middle Eastern countries suffer from high rates of unemployment and underemployment among university graduates. This condition is known as overeducation and it is observed in many countries around the world. Two countries, Singapore and Hong Kong, have been able to prevent overeducation. The purpose of this paper is to identify political and institutional factors that have allowed these two countries to succeed. Design/methodology/approach The author has relied on published government documents, online short articles and academic publications to collect evidence on higher education policies in Hong Kong and Singapore. The author has also received some valuable insight by e-mail communication with scholars and some government institutions in these countries. In addition, the author has generated tables and charts based on official government statistics from both countries to show the trends in higher education and the labor market outcomes for university graduates. Findings First, in Singapore and Hong Kong, the labor ministry and the private sector industries are able to influence the higher education enrollment policy based on economic demand for skilled labor. Second, in both countries, the political leadership is committed to preventing graduate surplus and has enough political strength to resist populist pressures for increasing the enrollment into higher education. Third, both countries have been able to direct a large number of high school graduates to vocational and two-year associate degrees. Originality/value Overeducation is a very costly and undesirable outcome that leads to a large amount of wasted investment in human capital. It is very valuable for developing countries to learn about policies that have been successfully used by Singapore and Hong Kong to prevent overeducation because the same policies can be used in the affected countries.

For many decades domestic political instability, anti-globalization economic ideologies and geopolitical turmoil prevented the Levant countries from developing closer economic relations. In an unexpected turn of events the AKP government in Turkey initiated proactive diplomacy aimed at the promotion of closer economic ties with Levant countries and these efforts led to a significant increase in trade and investment between the Levant countries between 2002-2010. This progress came to an end with the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011. These uprisings evolved into a violent sectarian war in Syria and caused considerable damage to Turkey's economic and diplomatic relations with Syria and Egypt. The level of sectarian violence has declined significantly in Syria and there is some potential that a political solution can be implemented. This outcome will have a positive effect on the region's prospects for restarting the economic cooperation that was suspended in 2011. The short-term prospects for a multi-lateral economic agreement are not high but an expansion of bilateral economic relations is more likely among the countries that enjoy more political and economic stability. Keywords: Levant, Syria, Turkey, Economic Cooperation, Trade, and Civil War Uzun yillardan bu yana devam eden ic siyasi istikrarsizliklar, kuresellesme karsiti ideolojiler ve jeopolitik calkantilar Levant ulkelerinin yakin ekonomik iliskiler gelistirmelerinin onune gecmistir. Turkiye'de AK Parti hukumetlerinin iktidara gelisiyle birlikte Levant ulkeleriyle yakin ekonomik baglari tesvik eden proaktif bir diplomasi baslatilmis ve bu cabalarin neticesinde 2002-2010 doneminde Levant ulkeleri arasinda ticaret ve yatirim onemli olcude artmistir. Bolgedeki ayaklanmalar Suriye'de yasanan agir mezhepsel catismayla evrilmis ve Turkiye'nin Suriye ve Misir'la olan ekonomik ve siyasi iliskilerinde agir bir zarara yol acmistir. Mezhepsel catismanin boyutlari Suriye'de onemli olcude azalmasi siyasi bir cozumun uygulanabilmesi yonunde bir ihtimali dogurmustur. Bu yonde bir gelisme, bolgede 2011 yilinda askiya alinan ekonomik isbirliginin yeniden baslatilmasi ihtimaline onemli bir katki saglayacaktir. Taraflar arasinda kisa vadede cok tarafli anlasma ihtimalleri cok fazla olmamakla birlikte, siyasi ve ekonomik istikrara sahip ulkeler arasinda ikili ekonomik iliskilerin artmasi olasidir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Levant, Suriye, Turkiye, Ekonomik Isbirligi, Ticaret, Ic Savas.

For many decades domestic political instability, anti-globalization economic ideologies and geopolitical turmoil prevented the Levant countries from developing closer economic relations. In an unexpected turn of events the AKP government in Turkey initiated proactive diplomacy aimed at the promotion of closer economic ties with Levant countries and these efforts led to a significant increase in trade and investment between the Levant countries between 2002-2010. This progress came to an end with the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011. These uprisings evolved into a violent sectarian war in Syria and caused considerable damage to Turkey’s economic and diplomatic relations with Syria and Egypt. The level of sectarian violence has declined significantly in Syria and there is some potential that a political solution can be implemented. This outcome will have a positive effect on the region’s prospects for restarting the economic cooperation that was suspended in 2011. The short-term prospects for a multi-lateral economic agreement are not high but an expansion of bilateral economic relations is more likely among the countries that enjoy more political and economic stability.